Adam Sherinian
In 2020 and 2023, residents of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in the South Caucasus were subjected to an offensive by Azerbaijan, which many saw as the first conflict of a new age of war thanks to the use of cheap and effective drones. However, the war in Nagorno-Karabakh and the weapons that were used there not only provide a case study for how wars will be fought in the future but also warn the world of the impact that wars will have on those caught in the crossfire.
The pace at which the last two wars in Nagorno-Karabakh were fought shocked the world, and rightly so, especially given the protracted state of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War in the early 1990s. Conversely, within the span of six weeks in 2020, Azerbaijan’s air and ground forces had overwhelmed Armenia’s defenses and pushed deep into Armenian-occupied territory. In 2023, the remaining territory held by the Armenian-backed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was recaptured in just one day.
While the weakness of Armenia’s defenses, or lack thereof, certainly bears some of the responsibility for the speed of these offensives, Azerbaijan’s new weapons were undeniably effective and stole the show. With the coffers of a globally nascent petrochemical industry backing them, Azerbaijan’s military employed Turkish and Israeli-manufactured drones, cost-effective and highly scalable weapons, to do the jobs that heavier jet aircraft and soldiers would ordinarily do for a fraction of the cost. Armenian tanks, lumbering across the mountainous terrain of the South Caucasus, were picked off one by one by nimble Bayraktar TB2 and Harop drones, causing some to augur poorly for ‘the era of the tank.’ Ill-positioned air defense systems and other military targets fared similarly against these drones, which were equipped with advanced radar targeting systems and laser-guided munitions. Although they were not the most advanced unmanned aerial vehicles, these drones provided more than enough firepower for the Azerbaijani military relative to their cost.
The sheer speed of these offensives had multiple implications, among the most notable being a new level of vulnerability for civilian populations. In particular, the 2023 offensive, aided by these new weapons, impelled a population of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh to flee to Armenia after months of a grueling blockade. The speed at which this exodus took place led to widespread privation by displaced civilians, who often arrived with no more than the most basic of possessions and received weak government support.
As conflicts similar to the Nagorno-Karabakh develop and these new weapons of war continue to be used, the possibility of more such conflicts ending in the same manner with large volumes of vulnerable displaced persons and fragile state frameworks to aid such populations poses a threat to state and social structures. While Armenia today has made some progress in integrating Nagorno-Karabakh refugees, it is not enough. Many refugees face uncertainty over their legal status, preventing full integration into Armenian society by virtue of their status, making jobs, housing, and education difficult to obtain. As a result, local NGOs and community networks are highly strained, further weakening Armenian societal structures and increasing the pool of vulnerable individuals.
While the proliferation of drones does mean that such future wars may not be as asymmetrical in their impact as the Nagorno-Karabakh War, the flip side is that nobody on either side is safe from rapidly unfolding wars. States currently facing the prospect of now-frozen conflicts should prepare for a future in which swift, unmanned wars are becoming a likelier prospect. Boosting humanitarian infrastructure, straightening pathways for integration and citizenship for refugees, and strengthening state and community apparatuses should all be government priorities. Instead of adopting these solutions post facto, governments should pre-emptively adopt legislation to respond to sudden wars. Regional and global organizations should identify areas of concern where military buildups (specifically those of unmanned aerial vehicles) may be occurring and strengthen their own infrastructure by hiring more local liaisons and investing in more of the basic equipment needed to provide for displaced persons.
While building resiliencies such as these won’t prevent future wars from occurring, they can soften the blow and ensure that civilians are able to recover, re-integrate, and even thrive after war. As war evolves and matches the pace of an ever-accelerating world, state and non-state actors must invest in these agile and forward-thinking responses to ensure the least amount of human suffering and the continued efficacy of institutions.
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