The Future of the U.S.-Venezuela Foreign Relations

Gabriela Molina Otaiza

Through the U.S. Venezuelan foreign relations have been primarily rooted in the oil industry, after its discover in 1914. Whits its contributions have help generate wealth in the region, and foster South American immigrants in the 1970s, it fostered heavy dependencies on oil revenues and straining the economic diversification of the country. Simultaneously, the political landscape of the region shifted drastically following the death of General Gomez in 1935, where factions advocating for the equal distribution of oil wealth became more mainstream. With American companies, such as Chevron, relying heavily on imported Venezuelan oil, U.S. - Venezuelan relations were largely based in maintaining strong economic ties.

However, these diplomatic relations began deteriorating rapidly during the  election of then president, Hugo Chavez, a self proclaimed socialist and anti-imperialist,  and his regime from 1999 to 2013. Within this period, he nationalized key sectors of the oil industry, as well as accusing the U.S. of a short coup against his government in April 2002 under the George W. Bush administration. Due to escalating political tensions and their failure to comply with their obligations under the international counternarcotics agreements, the U.S. imposed its first sanctions against Venezuela in 2005. In September 2008, Venezuela expelled the U.S. ambassador, Patrick Duddy, in show of solidarity with Bolivia who had expelled their a day prior due to allegations over U.S. -based destabilization attempts to their respective governments. Following the death of Hugo Chavex in 2013, the country now experienced heightened political, economic, and humanitarian tension under now President, Nicolas Maduro.

Under the Obama Administration, Venezuela was officially declared an, "unusual and extraordinary threat" to national security,” and signed an executive order imposing targeted sanctions on Venezuelan officials for human rights violations. The Trump Administration has continued to distance foreign relations withe Venezuela through heightened sanctioning, recolonising the opposition leader, and imposing vast visa restrictions. Since then, over 140 economic sanction on the country, showcasing the  U.S’s steadfast attempts to limit political relations with the country.In recent years, Venezuela has continued to suffer economic collapse with oil output shirting exponentially,  hyperinflation and sacristy of basic goods such as food and healthcare have led to a decrease in quality of living amongst the population. Although Washington has eased some economic sanctions on Venezuelan oil and gas sector in 2023 (Political Detente), Caraca’s inability to meet hold free, fair, and period elections has prompted the U.S. government to reimpose sanctions in 2024 and further distance themselves from peaceful diplomatic relations between the states.

            In order to ease U.S. - Venezuelan foreign relations, the U.S. can aim to  restore credible electoral processes in Venezuela in order to reinforce regional democratic norms. Though their implementation could face major opposition by Maduro' s government, Venezuela is ina  fragile state due to external political and social developments over the past year. On September 30, 2025, Venezuela announced a state of emergency in which the military has mobilized drills to be implemented din civil areas. This announcement not only signals international repression and consolidation, but threats to international security to the U.S. Additionally,  in October 2025, President Trump sent 8 warships to the caribbean and Pacific near South American countries, further heightening the buildup of military pressure in this area. Finally, On October 10, 2025, Maria Corina Machado became the first Venezuelan to win the Nobel Peace prize. Her efforts in promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and tireless advocacy to fight for a peaceful transition of power from a dictatorships to democracy has proven to be a significant turning point in the future of Venezuela-America diplomatic relations.While the award strengthened the International and domestic position of the opposition leader in Venezuela, it provoked the authoritarian leader, Nicolas Maduro, who seek to consolidate power regardless of domestic defiance. The Humanitarian crisis rampaging this area has not improved, rather exacerbated. This has lead to one of the largest refugee crises in the Americas, contributing to the erosion of Latin American democratic nature.

            Washington’s current standing has been centered on broad sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and intermittent military signaling, yet this approach has proven insufficient to aiding diplomatic relations. Now, Maduro is still remaining in power, brain drain has been an increasing immigration trend, sanctioning has hit civilian populations harder than elites. According to Georgetown’s analysis of Venezuela’s electoral crisis, the regime has perfected the appearance of democracy without its substance. The U.S. response has lacked a consistent, coordinated push to restore legitimacy, and instead projects ad hoc coercion. This invites accusations of hypocrisy and allows Maduro to claim defensive nationalism against a foreign aggressor.

            My solutions would consist of a more effective U.S. approach that promotes multilateral engagement and the restoration of legitimacy.  First, the U.S. should only impose Targeted sanctions against individuals responsible for repression and corruption, instead of sweeping economic penalties that harm civilians. This would help alleviate political ad economic tension and promote business maximization. Secondly, there should exist support for electoral integrity through funding independent observation, regional audit mechanisms, and conditional diplomatic engagement. Third, multilateral coordination with International Organizations, such as the Organization of American States (OAS), and the United Nations, should expand to include Venezuela in their advocacy for human rights. Fourth, legal restraint in use of force, avoiding unilateral strikes that lack multilateral mandates and weaken U.S. credibility. Finally, the U.S. should prepare for a post-Maduro transition, including support for debt relief, civil society, and institutional rebuilding when conditions allow.

The main counterargument that could arise from these solutions include Maduro’s unwillingness to  respond to pressure, as seen through sanctioning . However, smart, calibrated pressure is necessary The current use of blanket sanctions have proven ineffective and the need for Narrower, enforceable sanctions and diplomatic isolation coordinated through multilateral bodies offer more sustainable leverage. Incentivizing electoral reform through conditional engagement is more likely to produce results than rhetorical condemnation alone.

In conclusion, the crisis in Venezuela over the last decade has lead to one of the largest diasporas in history. This is one centered in tense foreign relations, erosion of the rule of law, and human rights abuses rooted in economic background. Therefore, Washington must move to create a more restrained, legitimacy-focused strategy grounded in multilateralism, targeted pressure, and electoral integrity. This would help offer a clearer path forward. The U.S. cannot rebuild Venezuelan democracy alone, but it can stop undermining it through inconsistent and counterproductive policy.