“We do not spy on friends”: How the US' Conquest for Greenland Signals a Shift in the International Order

Lily Jacobs

Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base) in northern Greenland on Wednesday, October 4, 2023. - Thomas Traasdahl/Ritzah Scanpix | (Via: AP)

In response to a reported American covert operation in the sparsely populated island of Greenland, the Danish foreign minister remarked, “We do not spy on our friends.” This comment seems like a no-brainer, yet in this current era of shifting international politics – from the rise of a multipolar world to the decay of traditional diplomacy– an ally threatening another ally no longer seems unrealistic. The foreign minister’s comment came after Denmark recently called back the US ambassador, due to discovering a covert operation in Greenland meant to promote soft power through creating internal discord. Both Trump and Vance have expressed interest in having the island territory become a part of the US, despite many Greenlanders wishing for independence instead. This, coupled with the delicate nature of the NATO alliance, is simply a signal that the US is entering a new era of international politics. Despite these complexities, US ambitions in Greenland signal a troubling shift for its European allies: geopolitical strategy now seems to prioritize business interests over traditional alliances.

At the heart of this geopolitical firestorm lies the scramble for resources. The race for rare earth minerals, coupled with hybrid warfare and the spread of mis-/dis-information, creates an unsettling climate. According to Al Jazeera, Greenland contains 25 of the 34 minerals designated as critical raw materials by the European Commission. Furthermore, the island is strategically important to the US – sandwiched between the North Atlantic route, the landmass would provide the US with an advantage in military operations. The US already has a military base stationed in Greenland. However, should Trump’s ambitions be taken seriously, or merely as a bluff?

The US, according to the Danish government, conducted a months-long campaign to sway Greenland. Three individuals, who have connections to Trump through the business world, were caught in a covert operation. Furthermore, in January, the administration attempted a charm offensive with Vice President Vance visiting the US military base in Pituffik. This shows Greenland is becoming a growing priority for superpowers, in part due to its rare earth minerals, which are crucial for computer chip production. Trump has not ruled out bringing the military in, arguing that the US “needs” Greenland, despite both Denmark and the US being NATO members. However, a poll commissioned by ABC News found that 68% of Americans believe Trump is serious about the US acquiring Greenland, with 76% opposing the idea. Greenlanders are also not too pleased with this idea.

This reported covert operation also included attempts to influence Danish mainland operations. According to the Associated Press, US intelligence agencies had been instructed to collect information about Greenland’s independence movements and local views on the US gaining access to Greenland’s rare earth minerals. These natural resources have been a source of contention. Since 1979, Greenland has been a self-governing territory under Denmark. The territory has had the constitutional right to determine independence since 2009.

While Greenlanders debate over independence, the US is determined to take advantage of the situation. There is currently mounting backlash against Denmark for the forced sterilization of Greenlandic women in the 60s, along with the forced separation of Inuit children from their families. Prime Minister Mette Fredriksen apologized soon afterward, but only when the criticism became too loud to ignore. 

As mentioned previously, both Denmark and the US are a part of NATO. If the US were to use military force against the island, this would trigger Article 1: “An attack by one country on another NATO country.” It would also violate Article 5 of the treaty, which states: “An attack on one member is an attack on all,” as well as Article 8: “Both conflicting countries who have broken the peace will be expelled from NATO. According to the articles, there are no explicit provisions for providing troops or weapons to one NATO country being attacked by another. This internal threat could lead to a fracturing of NATO, with Europe siding with Denmark and potentially isolating the US. However, this isolation would most likely lead to the US leaving the alliance, creating even more instability in the region.

Remaining NATO states must stand up against US aggression or face consequences. While many European leaders feel stricken by “analysis paralysis,” beating around the bush is not the course needed to fight against this clear violation of NATO actively. If the US turns against an ally, that also means that ally could turn against them, and lead to long-lasting consequences. This issue would push Europe into a new era of defense cooperation, with them no longer relying on the US. What will the future of the multipolar world look like? A potential invasion would diminish the US’s influence around the world by closing military bases, many of which are stationed in Europe.

We have a leading member of NATO who is open about trampling another’s sovereignty – we are already in a new era of defense cooperation. European States need to figure out how they can work together and protect themselves against aggression. While malicious actors have attempted to neutralize the US and NATO by exploiting and amplifying extremists, American aggression would only contribute further to this issue. The legitimacy of NATO is already at stake due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Any hint of dissent within the organization proves to foreign adversaries that NATO is not stable enough to prevent any sort of attack from infringing on its mission.

Since the covert operation was botched, the resulting diplomatic crisis cannot be undone. Europe is attempting to show a united front with the US, but by not confronting the current administration about its actions in Greenland, they are simply walking into a trap. This covert operation, if done again and proven to be successful, could turn into a domino effect – giving the US and other countries, such as Russia, the green light to simply invade a country because they deem it necessary for “national security.” Europe is already on high alert – with countries like France and Germany increasing their defense budgets, Denmark is following in a similar fashion. They recently held one of their largest joint military exercises in Greenland, without US participation. Many European countries have been so dependent on US military power for decades that they are now waking up to a potential crack in the world order. Regarding the Danish foreign minister’s comments, a US State Department official claimed that the “US respects the right of the people of Greenland to determine their own future.” Europe must do everything in its power to stand up against aggression of any kind, whether it be from the US, Russia, China, or another country. At the same time, they may not be able to trust their longtime ally anymore, potentially leading to the exclusion of the US from future critical decision-making.