How U.S. Technology and AI Deals Empower Authoritarianism in the Middle East

Noah Nofal

The leaders of several US tech companies accompanied Trump on his Middle East Tour on May 14th, 2025.

Source: Win McNamee via Getty Images

Artificial intelligence is expanding in the Middle East at a remarkable pace. Wealthy Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are investing billions of dollars into data centers and Big Tech agreements to position themselves as regional leaders in AI innovation. By 2030, AI is expected to contribute roughly $135 billion to Saudi Arabia’s GDP and $96 billion to the UAE’s, accounting for more than 12% of each economy.

Yet, less affluent states are being left behind, widening an already significant technological divide across the region. Even within wealthy Gulf countries themselves, the benefits of this emerging industry are far from being distributed equitably to their respective publics. State-controlled institutions and private firms are dominating the sector while ordinary citizens are facing new forms of surveillance, censorship, and predictive policing.

In the UAE, surveillance systems powered by AI facial recognition and predictive policing algorithms have been expanded to repress public opposition. Projects like Oyoon and Falcon Eye integrate over 300,000 cameras to track citizens and residents across public spaces, linking video footage to biometric databases. The data collected through these programs is used to monitor political activity, restrict expression, and identify potential critics of the government. These tools have enhanced routine surveillance and the state's capacity to deter and extinguish public dissent.

Similar uses of AI have followed in Saudi Arabia. The kingdom’s drive to become a global hub for artificial intelligence has been accompanied by the expansion of digital surveillance systems that monitor online speech and social media activity. Authorities have used these tools to identify and arrest citizens accused of spreading misinformation or criticizing government policies. Human Rights Watch has repeatedly reported on Saudi courts sentencing individuals to death following online activity deemed threatening to state stability, with some executions carried out from trials that failed to meet basic due process standards.

The environmental impact of data center developments is also deeply troubling. The Middle East already faces ‘extremely high’ water scarcity, coupled with the fact that most countries in the region operate with suboptimal power-usage efficiency (PUE). A single data center consumes up to five million gallons of water per day, which is enough to supply tens of thousands of households. In 2023, data centers across the world used approximately 500 terawatt-hours of electricity, a figure expected to triple by 2030. The costs of these operations raise serious questions about sustainability and access to resources, as the region already struggles with water and energy insecurity.

The shift in U.S. export policy has accelerated these projects. After curtailing heavy restrictions, the U.S. has drastically expanded AI exports to the Middle East following the rescission of the “Diffusion Rule” from the Trump administration. This reversal departs from the Biden administration’s more cautious, safety-oriented approach in favor of what has been described as “a laissez-faire regulatory regime”.

The policy change is largely understood to be driven by Washington’s race to compete with China and secure lucrative partnerships across the region. As the G42 hub expands, U.S. companies like Nvidia, the world’s largest semiconductor producer, have signed major billion-dollar deals to supply hundreds of thousands of advanced chips, software, and cloud services. Other notable investments have come from companies like AMD, Amazon, and Supermicro, while more deals from companies like OpenAI are still in the works. Although these partnerships serve as strategic investments in innovation and economic growth, they also carry an abundance of troubling implications for human rights, economic welfare, and the environment.

While the rapid development of AI in the Middle East certainly has the potential to serve the public good, so far, it has primarily empowered governments and corporations at the expense of public welfare and the environment. By loosening restrictions and facilitating these exports, the U.S. is inadvertently helping to strengthen authoritarian control, worsen inequality, and exacerbate climate change. Alternatively,  the U.S. should revert to stricter export regulations and introduce a new policy that ensures democratic oversight of these technologies takes place both domestically and abroad.