The US-Ukraine Minerals Deal Is Not Finished

Elene Meurmishvili

(Via: Creative Commons License)

On April 30th, Ukraine and the United States signed a “first-of-its-kind historic” deal to launch the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. Through this deal, the United States’ Development Finance Corporation will work with Ukraine’s government to support public-private partnerships and attract investment from the United States and European countries. This agreement also covers minerals, hydrocarbons, and related infrastructure development. It guarantees first choice to the United States to “either acquire them or designate the purchaser” of their choice, should they decide to acquire these resources. Ukraine could potentially provide the United States with at least 20 out of 50 critical minerals, including some rare earth elements (REEs) that the United States considers crucial for its national security. In turn, Ukraine gains investment opportunities and strengthens its strategic partnership with the United States.  

All of this sounds great in practice, but there is one problem. Current geological data on Ukraine’s critical minerals is not updated and digitized, raising many questions about the location of Ukraine’s resources that are such a crucial part of the deal. The data is “Soviet-era”, and much of it is classified. To truly benefit from this deal, the United States should invest in initiatives that accelerate the declassification and digitization of the geological data of Ukrainian minerals. This will provide a secure supply chain for the US, give the market much-needed reliable data, advance Ukraine’s reconstruction, and send a strong message to US rivals. 

Most of the world depends on China for the 17 elements that are considered rare earth elements. All 17 of these elements are used by the US Department of Defense in some capacity for different defense systems. For example, permanent magnets made from REEs are essential for the F-35 Lightning II aircraft, the Virginia and Columbia class submarines, and various radar and communication systems. This heavy reliance on China creates a military and economic vulnerability for the US, since the Chinese supply can easily be affected by the current economic and strategic tensions in their relationship. Refining the partnership with Ukraine by producing reliable data on Ukrainian minerals will enable the United States to shift its mineral economy away from a rival with an unpredictable supply. A stronger supply chain is almost guaranteed as a byproduct of efforts to digitize and declassify Ukraine’s geological data, because it is in Ukraine’s best interests to have the US as its strategic partner. 

Ukrainians understand that they are working towards a common goal with the United States, which is to fight for peace and long-term economic stability. Besides these shared values, refining this partnership will also attract investment in Ukraine, since “markets function best based on good information.” Investors in this market will be more likely to invest knowing the data is recent and reliable. Increased investment in Ukraine will not only strengthen Ukraine’s economy but also enable the country to fund its own reconstruction efforts and gain a strategic partner in a time of economic and military hardship. Advancement of these shared goals between the US and Ukraine, increased investor confidence, and increased utility of this deal from both sides depend on the execution of the initiatives to modernize Ukrainian data. 

There are already existing efforts to digitize Ukraine’s geodata from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). In February 2025, the EBRD published a project overview acknowledging the data problem. “EBRD and the Government have agreed to cooperate on digitizing and increasing the availability of, and accessibility to, Ukraine’s existing archive of geodata.” By July 2025, EBRD published an article, where they announced the launch of “the second stage of its project to digitize Ukraine’s paper-based geological data archive to make information more accessible.” While these are potentially effective first steps, it is far too early to assess their effectiveness. One thing is for sure: the scope and the speed of these efforts are still limited compared to the urgency of the problem. The geological data is extensive and classified, and without additional efforts, progress could take years. The United States’ contribution of funds, technology, and expertise could accelerate the process.

Time plays an essential role in this deal. According to Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, $350 billion worth of Ukrainian resources are already located in Russian-occupied territory. But, this is exactly why maintaining secure data is the key, so Ukraine can keep track of its resources and prevent Russia from exploiting them as best it can. This accomplishes one of the main goals of the partnership, which is to “send a strong message to Russia – the United States has skin in the game and is committed to Ukraine’s long-term success.” It also reassures Ukraine that they are not alone in this war. They have partners who value and have an interest in their sovereignty.  

So, what are the possible logistical approaches to this issue? How does the United States use its funds, technology, and expertise to help modernize and declassify maps of the Ukrainian resources in a timely manner? One way is through the United States Geological Survey (USGS). USGS is a federal science bureau that provides “science about the natural hazards that threaten lives and livelihoods; the waste energy, minerals, and other resources” that the United States relies on. The bureau has extensive mineral data and digitized archives not only of the United States but of other countries as well. The USGS already has reports on Ukrainian minerals from 1994. Considering the USGS has been modernizing and collecting data for decades now, they have the expertise to train Ukrainian professionals and transfer technology and data infrastructure to advance modernization efforts. 

Investing time and money in current efforts by working with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and starting new ones to digitize the geological data will make the process more extensive and efficient. In this case, the more efforts the merrier, and the faster they are, the better, since Ukrainian land is under attack each day. Through the USGS, the United States should partner with the EBRD, starting by laying out actionable steps and efforts that can be taken collaboratively by all countries and organizations involved to declassify, update, and digitize Soviet-era mineral maps, thereby leveraging the benefits of the deal for all parties.