Egypt's Development Path: Balancing Ambition and Reality

Nardine Eldalil

Cairo Tower, Zamalek, Egypt - Ahmed Ezzat | (Via: Unsplash)

As cranes soar over its skyline, Egypt faces rising discontent on the ground; a nation modernizing fast but leaving many behind. Under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the state is commencing massive infrastructure projects to modernize the country and stimulate economic growth. Meanwhile, this progress has occurred with increasing constraints on public discourse and civil society, raising concerns about the cost of stability. To secure lasting prosperity, Egypt must pair its development agenda with greater political openness and economic inclusion; only then can stability be both meaningful and sustainable. While many Egyptians are proud of their country's growth, others are concerned that growing living costs and restricted freedoms are slipping further out of reach.

Current Development Projects

A hallmark of Egypt's recent strategy is its focus on massive infrastructure initiatives intended to spur growth, which are known to be megaprojects. Since 2014, authorities have invested heavily in ventures such as the New Administrative Capital in the desert east of Cairo, an expanded Suez Canal, and a nationwide network of roads and bridges​. It is intended that these projects will modernize Egypt, relieve Cairo's overcrowding, and create jobs for the young and growing population​. Expectations of boosting transit revenues justified the Suez Canal expansion; about seven years after the canal's upgrade, its annual income had climbed to roughly $8 billion​. Likewise, investments in power plants early in Sisi's tenure helped eliminate crippling electricity shortages, resulting in an energy surplus to support the new development​. 

Economic Strains

The prices and priorities of this development-first strategy are being questioned as a result of the economic strains these projects have brought about. Egypt's leadership has accrued substantial debt to finance its construction spree; the new capital city alone has cost over $45 billion so far​. The value of the currency has slipped, and the country's external debt rose to around $155.7 billion in late 2022​, which is roughly equivalent to 93% of the country's GDP. In late 2022, the government secured a $3 billion International Monetary Fund bailout and pledged to slow down or postpone some state-led projects to contain inflation and currency pressures​. By 2024, Cairo had negotiated an expansion of the IMF package to $8 billion in hopes of stabilizing the economy​.

It is a consistent argument that pouring tens of billions into showcase projects at a time of economic fragility has diverted resources from more urgent social needs. They point to underfunded services like healthcare and education and persistent poverty in both urban and rural areas as signs that the government's spending priorities may be misaligned. It makes the citizens question the true economic payoff of ventures not directly improving living standards for the average Egyptian. Nonetheless, supporters of the government argue that the current struggles are part of a bigger plan; short-term hardships are in exchange for long-term prosperity. 

Political Freedom and Stability

Egypt's leadership has kept a tight focus on security and political order, viewing both as necessary after the unrest of 2011 and the years that followed. The belief is that firm control keeps the country from sliding back into disorder. Still, that approach has sparked concern; many are asking how much freedom must be given up in exchange for stability. President Sisi continues to announce how important security and stability are to maintaining the nation's course. Extensive security measures have been put in place by the government throughout the last 10 years, including the prohibition of the Muslim Brotherhood, stringent protest laws, and protracted periods of emergency that have since been abolished. In public remarks, Sisi and his officials insist that Egypt holds no “political prisoners,” contending that any detentions are for criminal or terrorism-related offenses rather than for peaceful dissent​. The state also shows efforts to provide subsidized housing and job initiatives as part of a governing philosophy that promises improved living conditions in exchange for political serenity. 

The way the government handles criticism has drawn growing concern. Rights groups say security forces have used tactics like arbitrary detention and enforced disappearances, making it harder for political opposition or independent media to function.​ Over time, the space for open debate has become smaller. Where the government sees vigilance against instability, some see an erosion of democratic institutions and the rule of law. They warn that silencing peaceful dissent and concentrating power in the executive can breed long-term discontent and stifle the societal creativity needed for proper development. Observers outside and inside Egypt have raised concerns that a populace deprived of outlets for expression may eventually grow more frustrated, not less.

Finding the Balance

Egypt should reallocate part of its infrastructure expenditure to improve key government services such as healthcare, education, and job training. Investing in human capital would bring immediate help to suffering families while also establishing the groundwork for long-term economic resilience. The government may also relax restrictions on civil society and independent media, resulting in a more inclusive political environment in which criticism may be channelled into constructive conversation. Gradually reducing the military's dominant position in the economy would allow for private sector growth and innovation. These initiatives are feasible given Egypt's current resources and have the potential to boost both public and investor confidence over time.

It is important to recognize the difficult balance the leadership is trying to strike. The country has faced regional turmoil spilling over from conflicts in neighboring countries, especially with wars causing a ripple effect on the nation. The challenge for Egypt is how to maintain security without permanently closing off avenues for political participation and public debate, which are vital for a healthy society in the long run. Egypt needs both security and development, and its long-term prosperity may depend on finding an equilibrium between the two. Now is the time for the country’s leadership, alongside civil society and international partners, to make deliberate choices that prioritize inclusive growth and protect fundamental freedoms. Without timely and tangible steps in that direction, the promise of stability may remain out of reach.